رواندا - نرخ بهره

The National Bank of Rwanda kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.0 percent on August 14th 2019, to support domestic demand. Policymakers said that short-term indicators point to a sustained economic growth in the second quarter of the year, consistent with the projection of 7.8 percent growth in 2019. Meantime, inflation rose to an over one-year high of 1.6 percent in July, mainly due to lower food supply caused by drought conditions, and it is expected to average 2.0 percent in 2019.

The National Bank of Rwanda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to a record low of 5% at its May 6th 2019 meeting, to sustain growing domestic demand. Regarding inflation, policymakers noted that it has been low since 2018 and continues to remain low at 1% in 2019Q1. Projections put inflation rising to around 3% in 2019 from 1.4% in 2018 but still below the bank target range of 2-8% and even its preferred target of 5%. The real GDP grew 8.6% in 2018, driven by agriculture (6%), services (9%) and industry (10%); The good economic performance is expected to continue in 2019, as economy should expand 7.8%. The bank added that exchange depreciation was moderate in 2019Q1, consistent with an initial projection of 5% for the whole year 2019, higher than 4.0% recorded in 2018. Also, the level of foreign exchange reserves remain adequate.

The Central Bank of Rwanda left its benchmark interest rate at 5.5% on February 7th 2019. Policymakers noted that economic growth remained strong in 2018, with GDP growth averaging 8.3 percent in the first three quarters of the year against 4.6 percent in 2017 and the composite index of economic activities rising 13.1 percent in Q4 2018. The momentum is projected to continue in 2019, to reach the initial growth projection of 7.8 percent. Also, exchange rate and inflationary pressures are expected to remain moderate; inflation should pick up in 2019 but is expected to move around 5 percent. Finally, it was added that risks to the country's economic outlook are essentially linked to uncertainties of the global prospects. Starting this year, the central bank changed to a price-based framework instead of a monetary targeting, mentioning an ongoing economic transformation and changes in the financial sector.